Gasskrywer: Suid-Afrika: Is Ramaphosa besig om die ‘spel’ te verander? (opdateer) – ETM Macro Advisors

Nov 19, 2019

Piet le Roux, uitvoerende hoof van Sakeliga, skryf: 

Beste lid van Sakeliga

‘n Ekonoom wie se ontledings ek noukeurig volg, is Russell Lamberti van ETM Macro Advisors. Sy jongste artikel, South Africa: Is Ramaphosa Changing the Game? (update), is ‘n terugblik op sy verwagtinge uit 2018 en ‘n oorsig oor ekonomiese probleme en geleenthede in Suid-Afrika. Met sy vergunning versprei ons die volledige ontleding hier gratis aan lede van Sakeliga.

‘n Paar uittreksels:

  1. Oor SAL as ‘n lakmoestoets vir president Ramaphosa

“SAA doesn’t mean much economically, but symbolically it is a meaningful crossroads. If Ramaphosa can’t face off against the unions in a mid-sized, non-essential SOE, then he certainly won’t do it at Eskom. But if he can, and SAA is partly or fully privatised and bailouts end, it will be a narrative win for Ramaphosa and may provide a spark of confidence.”

  1. Oor marginale hervormings

“In short, Ramaphosa has managed to change the style and even rhetoric of the government, but he’s not managed to start implementing his more conservative socialist reforms meaningfully – the reforms at SARS, for example, don’t strike at the heart of SA’s dysfunction.”

  1. Oor die monetêre en fiskale situasie

“The tough talk from National Treasury and the SARB is indeed there. The ethos is ‘hands off the SARB’, and there’s far less pervasive and divisive talk of radical economic transformation conjured up under the Zuma administration. Brazen looting has less ‘official’ licence than it once did, though hard evidence of less actual corruption and crony profiteering is yet to emerge. Even the land expropriation issue has been moved into the shadows, probably deliberately by Ramaphosa. The rand has – all things considered – remained resilient in the face of considerable global recession and stock market fears in 2019, as well as domestic investment weakness. There’s a belief that the finance minister understands the gravity of the fiscal problem and is agitating for real fiscal reform (though his actual budgeted forecasts betray a rather limpwristed command of state finances).”

Lees gerus die hele ontleding. Stem jy daarmee saam? Het jy iets om by te voeg? Laat hoor gerus van jou by diens@sakeliga.co.za.

Groete,

Piet le Roux

Uitvoerende hoof: Sakeliga

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